In the lead up to the 2017 general election,
YouGov's MRP projection model accurately predicted a hung parliament at a time when many other pollsters were indicating a Conservative majority.
As Statista's Martin Armstrong details,
the MRP technique (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) is
used to make estimates for small geographies for which only small sample
sizes are available. Anthony Wells, Director of Political and Social
Research at YouGov, explains:
"It works by using an extremely large number of interviews to model
people's voting preferences based upon their demographics and the local
political circumstances. Once this model has been developed it is
applied to the demographic make-up and political circumstances of each
of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain, providing projected vote
shares for each and every seat".
As the infographic below shows,
the projections for 2019 are a far cry from the hung parliament predicted for 2017.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Read more
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