COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios
Parameter | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
R0* | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | ||
Infection Fatality Ratio† | 0-19 years: 0.00002 20-49 years: 0.00007 50-69 years: 0.0025 70+ years: 0.028 |
0-19 years: 0.0001 20-49 years: 0.0003 50-69 years: 0.010 70+ years: 0.093 |
0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054 |
||
Percent of infections that are asymptomatic§ | 10% | 70% | 10% | 70% | 40% |
Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic¶ | 25% | 100% | 25% | 100% | 75% |
Percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset** | 30% | 70% | 30% | 70% | 50% |
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