The American Third World: We’ll Soon Be Living in It
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by Fabian Ommar
Author of Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City
It’s that time of the year, and instead of following tradition and
making new predictions and forecasts (which we preppers do all the time
anyways), I usually look back into the recent past, review my (and
other’s) work and previous analyses, what transpired (or not), where my
perspectives need adjustment and where, and so forth.
I decided to review and expand on a few topics addressed previously
here and see where we are on those. In April, I wrote about the thirdworldization of the United States, as both it, and the rest of the First World is gradually shifting towards the Third World.
It’s not only happening, but accelerating. And the entire world is
going that way, too – or soon it will, judging by the signs. These
things have a delay and don’t happen linearly, but in waves.
Thirdworldization 2.0 – When the First World becomes the Third World
Let’s see some more about how life can be in places constantly
suffering with economic crises, political upheavals, moral degeneracy,
authority demoralization, institutional failure and social decadence.
For anyone who’s never lived in such a context, understanding the
dynamics of the system and societies in the third world (or any place in
which the order has changed drastically, yet not totally evaporated),
can be a good way to prepare for what’s already underway.
The current crisis is global and unlike others seen in recent times
Notwithstanding the crap lining up just waiting to hit the fan – a
pandemic, a debt time-bomb, geopolitical tensions, and lots more – the
capacity to deal with all that is at an all-time low. Even wealthy
nations look exhausted, depleted, and lost like never before.
There’s zero willingness to cooperate and coordinate a solution,
despite authorities’ constant and oddly similar declarations to the
contrary. Speaking of the leadership currently in charge, it’s as
mediocre, misguided, and uninspiring as it can possibly be.
And this is everywhere. We’re screwed.
It’s impossible to say for sure whether or not all that will end up
in a full-blown SHTF of some kind, much less when. It can take a year,
or ten. What’s certain is this: until things reach that catalyst point,
degradation will force large swaths of populations worldwide, in most if
not all countries, to take a few steps back in many fronts.
As I said before, it’s already happening.
The Third World will get much worse, and the First World will become a lot like the Third.
This is not SHTF as some might see it, but a middle-of-the-road-yet-still-gloomy scenario. Many in Preppersphere
can’t conceive of anything less than the Apocalypse. Fine, to each
their own. Besides, preparing for the worst means covering for
everything less, so in principle it’s not a bad strategy, right?
I live in Brazil, but have visited the US, EU, and a few other
countries and continents, even having lived abroad for a period during
the 1990’s. I’ve experienced both realities under different
circumstances and gained some perspective on the contrasts between
advanced societies, and ones with broken, inefficient, and corrupt
institutions, and with weak social contracts.
That’s what I’m here to share. I’ll continue to raise awareness to
what society converts into long before TEOTWAWKI happens, and try to
help others prepare and deal with that. I do this not only because this
is what I have some degree of knowledge in, but also because that is
what I see happening.
It’s hard to make progress in a ‘quicksand environment.’
In developed countries, people frame their decisions and take action
based on reasonable probabilities, and the assumption that certain basic
conditions of the social contract won’t change radically or suddenly, depending on who’s in charge or some other spurious reason.
A functional checks-and-balances system warrants the stability of
laws, regulations, the tax regime, while the political rules and
institutions create a favorable environment for investment and risk
taking by people, families, and businesses. That’s what promotes the development and advancement of a country.
That’s perhaps the most important thing to understand about (and
consequently prepare for) thirdworldization: it’s not just that things
change, but how they change. Thirdworldization is the present and
constant possibility that things can get done, undone, and again, at any moment, in unpredictable ways, without debate or warning.
How do you make plans for the future in such context?
Instability and uncertainty make life in general much harder to navigate in the Third World.
If the goalposts are constantly moving, everyone will act short or
near-term as a way to adapt and survive. The harder and more unstable
the context, the faster you must both adapt and act (what is SHTF if not
chaos?). So, there’s a silver lining to living like this, but also a
price: it’s riskier, more stressful, tiresome, and frustrating.
I won’t say it’s hell, because it’s not.
Most people don’t live 24/7 in fear or under serious risk, not even
in severely hit places. It’s not a full scale SHTF. Life’s just more
fluid, more challenging, and not as predictable and calm as in more
civilized nations. Actions and consequences don’t follow a linear,
predictable path.
Look around and see the sweeping anxiety and depression everywhere.
I’d argue it’s not being caused by the pandemic, or even the economy
going kaput, but by the appetite of governments everywhere to change
basic rules and destroy freedom and individual liberty in the name of an
emergency. When you combine this with peoples’ willingness to forfeit
their rights, privacy and liberties in the name of illusory safety you end up with our current world.
That’s what I mean by the world going the way of the third world.
Observing and understanding the real nature of fluidity in everyday life of a dysfunctional society can be critical, because dysfunctional is exactly what the world is fast becoming.
I’ll give some examples to illustrate what I’m talking about…
What does the path to authoritarianism look like?
The executive, legislative, and judiciary overstepping each other is
common in banana republics. Every country can have a bill of rights, but
it’s the separation of powers that make the constitution effective.
Without a checks and balances system, rights are just words on a piece
of paper.
This creates both confusion and infighting while simultaneously
eroding confidence in the government’s institutions. People lose
reference, politicians tend to abuse this strategy more and more, and
from there it’s only downhill. It’s the exact script dictators and
populists everywhere follow every single time to not only take power but
to try to keep it forever.
For a long time this was something unacceptable and unseen in
advanced nations. Despite this though, it’s still been happening for
some time now only having escalated in the last couple decades.
Since 2020 it’s exploded, and it’s now eroding political and social
stability in various developed countries.
And this is not only about inflated presidents declaring wars and
contracting treaties and other actions without congressional approval,
but also the government ceding increasing powers to agencies
– NGOs and others organizations of unprepared, unelected tyrants
aligned with the elites, eager to interfere and micromanage both society
and people’s lives, as they steal peoples’ inherent rights and freedom.
We now have moral ambiguity from top to bottom.
As we go lower down the scale into a full-fledged Third World nation,
everyday life begins to border on the bizarre. In developing countries,
the public administration is a cesspool of incompetence, poor planning,
lack of vision, populism, and corruption which drains precious
resources and wealth from what would otherwise be a productive
population.
The bureaucracy can reach paralyzing levels. The tax regime is so
complex and illogical that it’s almost impossible to comply, even if you
want to. The regulations are unstable and mutating. Besides punishing
the population, these regulations lower the appetite of people and
businesses to invest and take risk. The economy becomes less dynamic,
less competitive, and eventually, it crawls.
Finally, when the government, institutions, and other authorities
begin to become ambiguous with their defining the rules they create and
enforce, people start thinking “why should I follow any of that?”
And once this happens, then it’s only a matter of time for
disorder to increase and morality to collapse. That’s what a
slow-burning SHTF means, after all: a semi-functional system where
everything is fluid and the laws have little practical effect.
There’s little guns can do to solve bigger issues.
But let’s switch gears a little to explain something related: guns
are important and can save us in some specific situations. But they
can’t help with any of the stuff I’m talking about.
Who are we gonna shoot? The politicians? The corrupt cops? The lazy
public workers? The stupid laws? That would solve nothing. All it would
mean would be civil war, which only makes everything worse.
Things might get to that point, but it’s a completely
different dynamic. When the system is up, shooting someone can land you
in jail – even in the Third World.
“How’s that any different from anywhere else?” you might
ask. In many ways, this starts with an ineffective investigation
apparatus: here only about 6% of intentional homicides are solved, in
comparison to an average of 65% in US, 80% in France, and 90% in UK.
Translating, it’s a lot more discouraging to commit a crime in the
First World than in the Third. But then other distortions and
inequalities come into play. The rich and/or connected almost never go
to jail, no matter the crime.
And this leads to the second big difference: the slow and utterly unfair justice system that punishes the entire society, by not punishing the deserving, as it should.
And then there’s the infamous Third World penitentiary system…
These are true SHTF microcosms. No prison anywhere is paradise,
obviously. But do you have any idea how bad and dangerous a Third World
jail is? If having forty dangerous inmates in a small cubicle originally
designed to hold four gives you chills, you understand why honest
citizens (especially preppers) are so reluctant to brag about firearms
and shooting others in developing countries.
In there, one can get raped, beat up, killed. Or co-opted by one of
the many factions that command organized crime, to whom you’ll belong
for protection, for the right to live, or even to keep your relatives
from being abused, tortured, or killed outside.
Instead of rehabilitating prisoners, this system turns them into even better (that is, worse) criminals.
Mass escapes are commonplace in third world prisons too. So are violent riots and rebellions
in which enemy factions fight, torture, kill and literally rip apart
their rivals, as a way to display ruthlessness and inflict fear into
opponents. Sure, these things also happen in first world prisons, but not with nearly the same frequency, brutality, or impunity.
There are many ways to get unwillingly involved in this mess of a system too.
As the situation worsens, so does the entire system. If you do everything right, lay low and get lucky, you may be well. It’s not guaranteed
though. Something crazy can happen by pure chance or opportunity, and
you’re suddenly involved in something you didn’t ask for, but can’t
avoid or escape anymore.
For instance, one day the cops or some government agent – inspection,
fiscal, whatever – pay a visit to your small shop or business and ask
for a “collaboration”, for… reasons. You pay, of course. It’s extortion, but you don’t want to upset the “law” – and the system can’t protect you from itself.
Now you’re a cash cow.
You go for a jog in the streets and 99% of the times nothing happens.
One day you get mugged, or your wife or daughter get groped while
riding a bicycle, and there’s little you can do (if you thought “guns!”,
go back a couple paragraphs and read what I said about those again).
And then, there’s the organized crime…
I could talk about organized crime for forever, discussing how it
grows and spreads based on the same principles and practices that
high-profile corporations use to grow and spread. How it infiltrates all
levels of society, by corruption, intimidation, lobbying, or even by
financing people to occupy strategic positions. How it gets involved
with politicians, legitimate businesses, the media – until it’s just one
big thing with tentacles everywhere.
Instead, I’ll do you all a big favor and just point to a couple of
movies that not only show in true, raw, vivid colors how this whole
mechanism works, but do it in a very entertaining and thrilling way. Elite Squad (1997) and it’s sequel, The Enemy Within (2010) are two of most brilliant and well-made Brazilian movies ever (both rated 8.0 on IMDB).
Apart from superb action flicks, they’re blunt, brutal, realistic
portraits of crime, drug fighting/trafficking, institutional corruption,
and overall social and moral decadence. They explain how crime evolves
and takes the system – how it gets “institutionalized”. It’s shocking,
revealing, and educational.
There’s a reason I keep returning to the topic of crime.
Crime and violence are insidious and pervasive, the first evidence of
collapse, while at the same time both the cause and consequence of
deeper issues. Crime is the antecedent to (serious) shortages, and
skyrockets when the grid goes down. It becomes both a collective and an
individual problem. It affects us directly, and indirectly, physically
and mentally – an itch no one can scratch.
Look how fast crime has grown in the US
and around the world just in the past few months. I’m not talking about
a 2% increment, but something in the two or even three figures in some
places – and again, in months. For many, especially the part of
society living in safe and civilized regions, crime may seem like
something distant, numbers and statistics presented in the news.
That all changes when it comes to our door, and then the cat is definitely out of the bag.
To conclude, there’s been a lot of talk about the possibility of civil war in US. I think that it can
happen, but not necessarily like 1871. It could be a mix of guerrilla
warfare and crime, for instance. Or we could witness a steep, sudden,
and widespread rise in crime and violence. In Haiti, gangs rule the country
and casualties are high. It affects everyday life and impacts the whole
population, the economy, everything. It may not be declared, but its de facto a civil war.
Abandoning innocence
When everything is good and there’s a surplus, collaboration happens
easily and even spontaneously. With all the challenges and hardships
we’re facing, people are entering survival mode everywhere. Becoming
more knowledgeable about the dynamics of living in a dysfunctional
society can build psychological preparations to live in a fluid and unstable world.
I acknowledge none of what I talked about here is prerogative of
Third World or collapsed countries. Disorder, corruption and malfeasance
are part of human nature and exist everywhere. But again, it’s
certainly more widespread and violent where it’s not contained, and –
this is critical – not punished.
And that’s precisely in proportion to the level of institutional
efficiency, solidity and civil cohesion. Once these decay, the doors to
social maladies are held wide open. And wherever this happens, a similar scenario unfolds.
It’s happening everywhere.
About Fabian
Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São
Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained
military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has
been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the
practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness
settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training
and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the
“constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.
Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City,
is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the
lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more
psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the
harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times.
You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor
